Several games publications and analyst postulates that in order for consoles to remain relevant, it needs to refresh its hardware every one or two years. This is to ensure that the hardware maintains a reasonable gap with the mobile chipsets used in smartphone hardware.
This comes hot of the heels of NVIDIA's release of Tegra X1 super mobile processor, with 256-core Maxwell architecture GPU, 8 ARM CPU cores, delivering 60-frames per second 4K resolution video. With these numbers, the mobile processor market is set to overtake console performance when the prices fall to market adoption levels with feasible price-competitive smartphones. When that happens, people will buy a smartphone, wireless-sync a Bluetooth gamepad with their and play their favourite game, output the display-link to a TV and sound system . They will disconnect and play it on the go whenever they want to leave the house.
Therefore, will console manufacturers refresh their hardware ever so often? Yes and no. We most likely will a hardware iterations but it will be unlikely to be a frequent as you will see like the smartphone market. First of all, the major selling point for consoles are its consistency and stable platform. For end-users it means no regular hardware investment required, and for developers it means a single, predictable target platform to develop for.
Past console generations have shown that consoles will see a hardware refresh several times in its lifecycle. PS3 started with the phat and power - hungry version (with a slapped on PS2 engine under its hood for backwards compatibility). Then comes the slim version, less USB ports, no Linux or PS2 compatibility, no media-card slots and finally the super slim version. This console cycle will be similar too. So what can we hope to see?
Beefing Up PS4 Computing Power
PS4 uses custom APU from AMD that uses the 28nm manufacturing process. With the ever advancement and manufacturing and improving yields, 20nm will see price/performance and power consumption.
The question I have here is whether Sony will make a ground-breaking move by upsizing the number of computational units on the GPU, thus increasing the headroom for developers to graphical fidelity and other processes such as enemy AI. This will essentially mean we have a PS4 Advanced Edition, where the games will detect and run according to the enhanced specs.
Other Hardware Improvements
USB 3.1 --- to increase throughput for higher performance
Bluetooth 4.1 --- to increase bandwidth to support more devices
Wireless 802.11ac --- to improve signal coverage, stability and throughput
Anti-wobble design --- chassis improvement to ensure no more wobble
So as far as hardware goes, that is all I can think of. Software, well, plenty of firmware improvements! I will leave that for another future post. :)